専門家に聞くマイナス金利の影響

マイナス金利とは

銀行はあまった資金を日銀に預ける。

これまでは銀行は日銀から利息がもらえたが、

今後は日銀に預ける際に利息を支払わなければならない。

当然、銀行は日銀に預けるのをやめる為、

その分住宅ローンなどの貸し出しや中小企業への設備投資を増やす。

このため住宅ローン金利は下がる。

ただ、マイナス金利を導入しているスイス(2015年導入時-0.25%→-0.75%と推移)では、

銀行は負担を利用者に転嫁する形で住宅ローン金利が上昇した。

住宅ローン金利は確実に下がる

預金金利も下がっており、国際金利、また連動する長期プライムレートなど、

そうしたものも下がると予想されるので、住宅ローンについても同様といえるだろう。

確かに、あまりにもマイナス幅を下げすぎて(住宅ローン金利が)上がってしまったという例もあるが、今回の場合は先行する欧州(のいくつかの国)と異なり、一部預金が対象になる為、

負担を生活者に転嫁するような住宅ローン金利を引き上げるという動きはまず起こらない。

変動金利は短期の金利に影響され、固定金利は国債の金利による影響が大きい。

下がった分だけ下がるということはないが、下がっている国債の影響を受ける。

すでに短期金利で見ればLIBOR(ロンドン銀行間取引=指標として使われる)も下がっており、確実に下がる方向へ動くものと予想される。

住宅価格上昇の可能性も

今後も、今が買い時とアドバイスすることは変わらない。

消費者向けの住宅ローン金利が引き上げられることはまずない。

ただ今回の取り組みが消費者のメリットにつながるか、2ヶ月程度は様子を見てみないと判断できない。

住宅・建設市場にカネが流れることで建材価格が上昇し、住宅価格自体が上昇する可能性もある。

ローン金利の低下は住宅取得の後押しになるが、個人で見ればやはり結婚や出産のタイミング、あるいはインパクトとして消費税増税の方が大きいと思う。

すでに国債の金利は下がっている。

このためフラット35などのローン金利はもっと下がるはず。

3月の国債金利の動向を注視することで今後の住宅ローン金利動向読めると思う。

マイナス金利の影響

  • 住宅・建設市場に資金流入

→資材価格が再上昇の可能性

→首都圏では一層の地価上昇の可能性

  • 分譲事業のプロジェクトには積極融資
  • 住宅ローン金利は底値が継続
  • 地銀は収益悪化の可能性→中期的には融資先選別も?
  • 中期的にはローン金利上昇、デフレ化も?
住宅ローン、金利引き下げ

フラット35は今後最低水準も

今回の日銀のマイナス金利導入で、民間金融機関は住宅ローン金利の引き下げを始めている。

新生銀行は、2月3日契約分からローン金利を最大で0.1%下げると発表した。

住宅ローン金利は低水準を推移しているフラット35の2月融資分の最低金利は、

主力の融資期間20年超の商品で、1月から0.06%下がって1.48%。

昨年5月以来9ヶ月ぶりに1.5%を下回った。

これは住宅ローン金利に影響を与える償還期間が10年の国債の利回りが12月から1月大幅に下がったからである。

マイナス金利発表後は国債の利回りが過去最低記録を更新するなど低水準を推移していることから、3月には住宅ローン金利が一段と下がる可能性が高い。




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